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分化型甲状腺癌(differentiated thyroid carcinoma,DTC)是最常见的甲状腺癌病理类型,其恶性程度较低,绝大多数病人规范治疗后预后较好,10年生存率高达93%[1],15年生存率亦高于87%[2],但其中约30%的DTC病人会出现复发或转移[3]。因而,对DTC病人的终生规范化随访和监控尤为重要。2015年美国甲状腺协会(American thyroid association,ATA)对131I治疗后的疗效反应进行了分级,同时提出了动态评估的概念[4]。动态危险度评估体系(dynamic risk assessment system,DRAS)根据DTC术后131I治疗随访过程中血清学甲状腺球蛋白(thyroglobulin,Tg)、颈部彩超、CT及131I全身显像等影像学表现对任意时间点的临床转归进行实时分析、动态评估,有助于及时修订治疗方案,为实现DTC病人个体化治疗提供依据。本研究基于治疗反应评估体系,动态评估非远处转移DTC病人疗效的变化,着重研究影响病人最佳疗效反应的因素,探讨术后首次131I治疗前Tg(preablative stimulated thyroglobulin,ps-Tg)预测DTC病人ER的价值,为DTC病人规范化、个体化治疗提供一定的参考价值。
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共纳入160例病人,其中男53例,女107例。首次131I治疗时年龄48.61±17.69(18~84)岁。中位随访时间为69(48~144)个月。
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动态评估病人131I治疗后6~12个月(初始评估)与12~24个月(终末评估)的疗效,进一步比较分析初始评估与终末评估时病人的疗效反应发现,与初始评估时相比,终末评估时ER率显著升高(P < 0.01),IR和BIR率均明显降低(P < 0.05)(见表 1)。37.84%(28/74)初始评估为非ER(包括IR、BIR和SIR)病人在随访期末转变为ER,62.16%(46/74)病人仍评估为非ER;而2.33%(2/86)初始评估为ER的病人中随访期末转变为非ER(IR 1例和BIR 1例),97.67%(84/86)在随访期末仍评估为ER。
时间/月 n ER IR BIR SIR 6~12 160 86(53.80) 32(20.00) 37(23.13) 5(3.13) 12~24 160 112(69.70) 17(10.63) 20(12.50) 11(6.88) χ2 — 8.96 5.42 6.17 2.37 P — < 0.01 < 0.05 < 0.05 >0.05 表 1 DTC病人131I治疗后初始评估与终末评估时疗效的比较[n;百分率(%)]
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根据术后131I治疗随访满24个月时的疗效反应情况,将DTC病人分为ER组(74.23%,112/160),非ER(25.77%,48/160)。2组间比较,ER组年龄小、血清ps-Tg水平较低、随访期内131I治疗次数 < 3、131I治疗总剂量 < 500 mCi、初始危险分层低危者、初始TNM分期Ⅰ~Ⅱ期者比例高于非ER组(P < 0.05~P < 0.01)(见表 2)。
分组 男 女 年龄
(x±s)/岁ps-Tg[M(P25,P75)]/(ng/mL) 淋巴结转移率
[M(P25,P75)]/%131I首次剂量/mCi < 100 ≥100 ER组 39 73 44.50±14.55 8.12(1.22, 25.03) 39.15(26.86, 53.62) 109 3 非ER组 11 37 52.13±19.40 228.04(109.55, 228.04) 48.63(35.23, 72.19) 44 4 χ2 3.22 6.92* 350.50△ 512.30 1.39 P >0.05 < 0.01 < 0.01 >0.05 >0.05 分组 131I总剂量/mCi 131I治疗次数 包膜外侵犯 初始复发危险分层 初始TNM分期 < 500 ≥500 < 3 ≥3 有 无 低危 中危 高危 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ ER组 20 92 18 94 25 87 39 46 21 49 15 4 44 非ER组 23 25 20 28 30 130 8 17 23 10 9 1 28 χ2 15.45 12.16 0.52 10.14 8.79 P < 0.01 < 0.01 >0.05 < 0.01 < 0.05 *示t值;△示Z值 表 2 DTC病人131I治疗后24个月ER与非ER组间临床、病理特征的比较
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以ER为因变量将年龄、血清ps-Tg、131I治疗次数、131I治疗总剂量、初始危险分层及初始TNM分期纳入单因素logistic分析,结果显示:ps-Tg、初始危险度分层是影响DTC病人ER的危险因素(P < 0.05~P < 0.01),将ps-Tg、初始危险度分层继续纳入多因素logistic回归分析,ps-Tg是DTC病人获得ER的保护因素(OR=0.942,P < 0.01)(见表 3)。
因素 单因素回归分析 多因素回归分析 Waldχ2 P OR 95%CI Waldχ2 P OR 95%CI ps-Tg/(ng/mL) 17.02 < 0.01 0.949 0.925~0.973 15.59 < 0.01 0.942 0.915~0.970 复发危险层分级 低危 4.98 >0.05 1.092 1.080~1.612 11.11 >0.05 1.068 0.372~2.359 中危 9.48 < 0.01 2.903 1.138~7.403 3.37 >0.05 1.327 0.329~5.354 高危 11.11 < 0.05 4.889 1.780~13.429 3.54 >0.05 5.261 0.894~30.960 表 3 影响DTC病人终末疗效评估ER的因素分析
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血清ps-Tg预测治疗疗效的ROC曲线(见图 1),ps-Tg预测DTC病人初始评估及终末评估时非ER的ROC曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)、敏感性、特异性分别为0.884、84.40%、85.30%及0.762、69.70%、76.60%,根据Youden指数,血清ps-Tg预测初始评估和终末评估时病人非ER的最佳临界值为16.62 ng/mL和46.37 ng/mL(P < 0.01)(见表 4)。
AUC(95%CI) 截断值 敏感度 特异度 P 初始评估 0.884(0.820~0.948) 16.62 84.40 85.30 < 0.01 终末评估 0.762(0.674~0.858) 46.37 69.70 76.60 < 0.01 表 4 ps-Tg预测DTC病人非ER的ROC曲线分析
分化型甲状腺癌131I治疗的动态评估及影响最佳疗效反应的因素分析
Dynamic evaluation of 131I therapy for differentiated thyroid carcinoma and analysis of factors influencing the excellent response
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摘要:
目的分析影响非远处转移分化型甲状腺癌(DTC)病人术后131I治疗后获得最佳治疗(ER)的因素。 方法纳入131I治疗后随访满24个月的病人160例,动态评估其治疗后3、6、12及24个月疗效反应。采用χ2检验、Fisher精确检验和Mann-Whitney U秩和检验分析不同疗效分层病人临床病理差异,应用logistic回归分析和ROC曲线分析探究影响病人最佳疗效反应的因素。 结果与初始评估时相比,终末评估时ER明显升高(P < 0.01);而ER组年龄小、ps-Tg水平较低、131I治疗次数 < 3次、131I治疗总剂量 < 500 mCi、初始危险分层低危及初始TNM分期Ⅰ~Ⅱ期的病人比例均高于非ER组(P < 0.05~P < 0.01)。血清ps-Tg是影响终末期ER的保护因素(OR=0.942,P < 0.01)。ps-Tg与初始及终末ER关系的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.884、0.762,预测非ER的最佳临界值为16.62 ng/mL和46.37 ng/mL(P < 0.01)。 结论131I治疗非远处转移DTC疗效显著,血清ps-Tg对预测初始评估和终末评估疗效的具有重要价值。 Abstract:ObjectiveTo analyze the risk factors influencing the excellent response(ER) in differentiated thyroid carcinoma(DTC) patients without distant metastasis after 131I therapy. MethodsOne hundred and sixty patients treated with 131I treatment were followed for 24 months, and the efficacy response of all cases after 3, 6, 12 and 24 months of treatment were evaluated.The clinicopathological differences of patients with different therapeutic stratification were analyzed using χ2 test, Fisher exact test and Mann Whitney U test, and the logistic regression analysis and ROC curve analysis were used to explore the factors affecting ER. ResultsCompared with the initial evaluation, the ER rate at the final evaluation significantly increased(P < 0.01).The proportion of patient with younger age, lower ps-Tg level, 131I treatment times < 3, 131I total dose < 500 mCi, low initial risk stratification and initial TNM stage Ⅰ-Ⅱ in ER group were higher those in non-ER(P < 0.05 to P < 0.01).The results of logistic multiple regression analysis showed the serum ps-Tg was a protective factor affecting end-stage ER(OR=0.942, P < 0.01).The areas under ROC curve of the relationship between ps-Tg and initial ER, and final ER were 0.884 and 0.762, respectively.The optimal critical values of predicting non-ER were 16.62 ng/mL and 46.37 ng/mL(P < 0.01). ConclusionsThe efficacy of 131I in the treatment of DTC patients without distant metastasis is significant.The serum ps-Tg is of great value in predicting the initial and final evaluation of curative effects. -
Key words:
- differentiated thyroid carcinoma /
- 131I therapy /
- ongoing assessment /
- excellent response
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表 1 DTC病人131I治疗后初始评估与终末评估时疗效的比较[n;百分率(%)]
时间/月 n ER IR BIR SIR 6~12 160 86(53.80) 32(20.00) 37(23.13) 5(3.13) 12~24 160 112(69.70) 17(10.63) 20(12.50) 11(6.88) χ2 — 8.96 5.42 6.17 2.37 P — < 0.01 < 0.05 < 0.05 >0.05 表 2 DTC病人131I治疗后24个月ER与非ER组间临床、病理特征的比较
分组 男 女 年龄
(x±s)/岁ps-Tg[M(P25,P75)]/(ng/mL) 淋巴结转移率
[M(P25,P75)]/%131I首次剂量/mCi < 100 ≥100 ER组 39 73 44.50±14.55 8.12(1.22, 25.03) 39.15(26.86, 53.62) 109 3 非ER组 11 37 52.13±19.40 228.04(109.55, 228.04) 48.63(35.23, 72.19) 44 4 χ2 3.22 6.92* 350.50△ 512.30 1.39 P >0.05 < 0.01 < 0.01 >0.05 >0.05 分组 131I总剂量/mCi 131I治疗次数 包膜外侵犯 初始复发危险分层 初始TNM分期 < 500 ≥500 < 3 ≥3 有 无 低危 中危 高危 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ ER组 20 92 18 94 25 87 39 46 21 49 15 4 44 非ER组 23 25 20 28 30 130 8 17 23 10 9 1 28 χ2 15.45 12.16 0.52 10.14 8.79 P < 0.01 < 0.01 >0.05 < 0.01 < 0.05 *示t值;△示Z值 表 3 影响DTC病人终末疗效评估ER的因素分析
因素 单因素回归分析 多因素回归分析 Waldχ2 P OR 95%CI Waldχ2 P OR 95%CI ps-Tg/(ng/mL) 17.02 < 0.01 0.949 0.925~0.973 15.59 < 0.01 0.942 0.915~0.970 复发危险层分级 低危 4.98 >0.05 1.092 1.080~1.612 11.11 >0.05 1.068 0.372~2.359 中危 9.48 < 0.01 2.903 1.138~7.403 3.37 >0.05 1.327 0.329~5.354 高危 11.11 < 0.05 4.889 1.780~13.429 3.54 >0.05 5.261 0.894~30.960 表 4 ps-Tg预测DTC病人非ER的ROC曲线分析
AUC(95%CI) 截断值 敏感度 特异度 P 初始评估 0.884(0.820~0.948) 16.62 84.40 85.30 < 0.01 终末评估 0.762(0.674~0.858) 46.37 69.70 76.60 < 0.01 -
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