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非瓣膜性心房颤动(non-valvular atrial fibrillation, NVAF)是临床上最常见的心律失常,而缺血性脑卒中是心房颤动病人最严重的几种并发症之一,致残率和死亡率均较高。对于NVAF合并急性脑梗死的病人,寻找简单易行的预测指标以判断其预后,并尽早进行干预就显得极为重要。CHA2DS2-VASc评分系统操作简单、结果稳定,被2014年美国发布的心房颤动诊疗指南所推荐,近年来开始用于评估NVAF卒中风险分层和预测转归。但该评分系统在预测卒中分层和预后上存在一定的局限性。美国国立卫生研究院神经功能缺损评分(NIHSS)系统具有简洁、易行、可靠的特点,是临床上最常用的评估卒中病人神经功能缺损的方法,但该评分对后循环梗死和小血管病诊断的敏感性较差。研究[1]表明,炎症参与了心房颤动启动和维持的全过程,也是急性脑梗死发生和进展的重要因素。中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞比值(neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, NLR)是一种较新的炎性标志物,近年来广泛用于评估急性冠状动脉综合征、2型糖尿病、急性脑梗死等疾病。本研究分析联合CHA2DS2-VASc评分、NIHSS评分及NLR三项指标对NVAF合并急性脑梗死短期预后的预测价值,从而为高危病人制定适宜的治疗策略。现作报道。
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最终238例病人纳入分析。其中男140例,女98例,年龄38~93岁;分为预后良好组148例(62.18%),预后不良组90例(37.82%)。2组年龄、性别、合并肺部感染率、基线NIHSS评分、CHA2DS2-VASc评分、NLR、尿酸、C反应蛋白、纤维蛋白原差异均有统计学意义(P < 0.05~P < 0.01)(见表 1)。
分组 n 年龄/岁 女 体质量指数/(kg/m2) 高血压 糖尿病 外周血管病 吸烟 饮酒 合并肺部感染 抗凝治疗 基线NIHSS评分/分 CHA2DS2-VASc评分/分 预后良好组 148 70.59±10.81 48 23.45±2.81 90 31 4 72 50 23 110 6.53±3.80 3.03±1.59 预后不良组 90 73.84±8.58 50 22.81±3.09 65 25 5 34 26 44 69 15.49±7.17 5.12±1.68 t — 2.42 12.35* 1.65 3.21* 1.45* 0.59* 2.68* 0.62* 30.77* 0.17* 10.95 9.64 P — < 0.05 < 0.01 >0.05 >0.05 >0.05 >0.05 >0.05 >0.05 < 0.01 >0.05 < 0.01 < 0.01 分组 TOAST分型 NLR 尿酸/(μmol/L) 总胆固醇/(mmol/L) 三酰甘油/(mmol/L) 高密度脂蛋白/(mmol/L) 低密度脂蛋白/(mmol/L) C反应蛋白/(mg/L) 凝血酶原时间/s 国际标准化比值 纤维蛋白原/(g/L) 大动脉粥样硬化型 心源性栓塞 小动脉闭塞型 预后良好组 21 93 34 3.33±2.37 315.20±104.81 4.11±3.60 1.54±1.39 0.94±0.26 2.18±0.69 12.67±27.61 12.32±2.95 1.09±0.25 3.44±1.23 预后不良组 15 51 24 5.75±4.51 269.89±95.36 3.86±1.00 1.47±0.84 0.97±0.32 2.26±0.74 25.11±33.36 12.02±1.65 1.06±0.16 4.02±1.13 t 0.89* 4.71 3.35 0.65 0.42 0.69 0.85 2.97 0.89 1.05 3.68 P 0.64 < 0.01 < 0.01 >0.05 >0.05 >0.05 >0.05 < 0.01 >0.05 >0.05 < 0.01 *示χ2值 表 1 预后良好和预后不良组的人口统计学和临床资料比较(x±s)
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以NVAF合并急性脑梗死的短期预后作为因变量(预后不良=1,预后良好=0),性别(男=1,女=2)、年龄、合并肺部感染(是=1,否=0)、NLR、尿酸、C反应蛋白、纤维蛋白原值、基线NIHSS评分和CHA2DS2-VASc评分作为自变量,进行多因素的二分类logistic回归。结果显示,CHA2DS2-VASc评分、基线NIHSS评分以及NLR均为NVAF合并急性脑梗死短期预后的独立预测因素(P < 0.05~P < 0.01)(见表 2)。
因素 B SE Waldχ2 P OR(95%CI) 年龄 -0.006 0.026 0.06 >0.05 0.994 (0.945~1.045) 女性 -0.407 0.473 0.74 >0.05 0.665 (0.263~1.683) 合并肺部感染 0.122 0.511 0.06 >0.05 1.130 (0.415~3.074) NLR 0.154 0.077 3.99 < 0.05 1.166 (1.003~1.357) 尿酸 0.001 0.002 0.04 >0.05 1.000 (0.996~1.005) C反应蛋白 -0.005 0.009 0.36 >0.05 0.995 (0.978~1.012) 纤维蛋白原 0.003 0.192 0.00 >0.05 1.003 (0.689~1.461) 基线NIHSS评分 0.338 0.060 31.50 < 0.01 1.402 (1.246~1.578) CHA2DS2-VASc评分 0.725 0.148 23.85 < 0.01 2.065 (1.544~2.763) 表 2 短期预后不良的多因素logistic回归分析
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ROC曲线分析表明,CHA2DS2-VASc评分、基线NIHSS评分、NLR预测短期预后不良的曲线下面积分别为0.816、0.885、0.726,而三项联合预测的曲线下面积大于单一变量,为0.932,敏感性为84.4%,特异性为87.8% (P < 0.01)(见表 3)。联合预测的Hosmer‐Lemeshow拟合优度结果显示,值为6.281(P>0.05)。
因素 最佳截断值 敏感性/% 特异性/% P 曲线下面积(95%CI) CHA2DS2-VASc评分 4.5 68.90 81.80 < 0.01 0.816(0.758~0.874) 基线NIHSS评分 8.5 82.20 74.30 < 0.01 0.885(0.844~0.925) NLR 3.416 73.30 70.30 < 0.01 0.726(0.658~0.794) 联合预测 — 84.40 87.80 < 0.01 0.932(0.899~0.964) 表 3 各变量预测NVAF合并急性脑梗死短期预后不良的ROC曲线分析
CHA2DS2-VASc评分、NIHSS评分联合NLR对非瓣膜性心房颤动合并急性脑梗死病人短期预后的预测价值
Predictive value of CHA2DS2-VASc score, NIHSS score and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio on short-term prognosis of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation complicated with acute cerebral infarction
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摘要:
目的探讨CHA2DS2-VASc评分、基线NIHSS评分联合中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞比值(NLR)对非瓣膜性心房颤动(NVAF)合并急性脑梗死病人短期预后的预测价值。 方法连续纳入2018-2020年住院的NVAF合并急性脑梗死病人, 完整收集所有病人临床资料, 按照发病90 d后改良Rankin量表(mRS评分)将病人分为预后不良组和预后良好组, 比较2组相关资料的差异, 应用二分类logistic回归分析短期预后的独立影响因素, 并根据ROC曲线的结果评估CHA2DS2-VASc评分、基线NIHSS评分、NLR单个指标以及三者联合对NVAF合并急性脑梗死短期预后的预测价值。 结果共纳入238例病人, 其中预后不良组90例, 预后良好组148例。2组年龄、性别、合并肺部感染率、基线NIHSS评分、CHA2DS2-VASc评分、NLR、尿酸、C反应蛋白、纤维蛋白原差异均有统计学意义(P < 0.05~P < 0.01)。CHA2DS2-VASc评分、基线NIHSS评分和NLR均为NVAF合并急性脑梗死病人短期预后的独立影响因素(P < 0.05~P < 0.01)。三项指标及联合预测对NVAF合并急性脑梗死短期预后不良的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.816、0.885、0.726和0.932(P < 0.01)。 结论CHA2DS2-VASc评分、NIHSS评分联合NLR对NVAF合并急性脑梗死短期预后不良具有一定的预测价值, 可用于病人早期病情评估并进一步优化治疗策略。 -
关键词:
- 心房颤动 /
- 脑梗死 /
- CHA2DS2-VASc评分 /
- NIHSS评分 /
- 中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞比值
Abstract:ObjectiveTo explore the predictive value of CHA2DS2-VASc score, baseline NIHSS score and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) for short-term prognosis in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) complicated with acute cerebral infarction. MethodsThe patients with NVAF complicated with acute cerebral infarction hospitalized from 2018 to 2020 were continuously included, and the clinical data of all patients were completely collected.The patients were divided into poor prognosis group and good prognosis group according to the modified Rankin scale (mRS score) 90 days after the onset of the disease.The differences in relevant data between the two groups were compared.The independent influencing factors for short-term prognosis were analyzed using binary logistic regression.The predictive value of CHA2DS2-VASc score, baseline NIHSS score, NLR single index and the combination of the three for short-term prognosis of NVAF complicated with acute cerebral infarction was evaluated by ROC curve. ResultsA total of 238 patients were included in this study, including 90 patients in the poor prognosis group and 148 patients in the good prognosis group.There were statistically significant differences between the two groups in age, gender, combined pulmonary infection rate, baseline NIHSS score, CHA2DS2-VASc score, NLR, uric acid, C-reactive protein, and fibrinogen (P < 0.05 to P < 0.01).The CHA2DS2-VASc score, baseline NIHSS score, and NLR were independent influencing factors for short-term prognosis in patients with NVAF complicated with acute cerebral infarction (P < 0.05 to P < 0.01).The area under the ROC curve for short-term poor prognosis of NVAF complicated with acute cerebral infarction predicted by three indicators and their combination were 0.816, 0.885, 0.726, and 0.932, respectively (P < 0.01). ConclusionsThe CHA2DS2-VASc score, NIHSS score and NLR have a certain predictive value for the short-term poor prognosis of NVAF patients complicated with acute cerebral infarction, which can be used to assess the patient's early condition and further optimize treatment strategies. -
表 1 预后良好和预后不良组的人口统计学和临床资料比较(x±s)
分组 n 年龄/岁 女 体质量指数/(kg/m2) 高血压 糖尿病 外周血管病 吸烟 饮酒 合并肺部感染 抗凝治疗 基线NIHSS评分/分 CHA2DS2-VASc评分/分 预后良好组 148 70.59±10.81 48 23.45±2.81 90 31 4 72 50 23 110 6.53±3.80 3.03±1.59 预后不良组 90 73.84±8.58 50 22.81±3.09 65 25 5 34 26 44 69 15.49±7.17 5.12±1.68 t — 2.42 12.35* 1.65 3.21* 1.45* 0.59* 2.68* 0.62* 30.77* 0.17* 10.95 9.64 P — < 0.05 < 0.01 >0.05 >0.05 >0.05 >0.05 >0.05 >0.05 < 0.01 >0.05 < 0.01 < 0.01 分组 TOAST分型 NLR 尿酸/(μmol/L) 总胆固醇/(mmol/L) 三酰甘油/(mmol/L) 高密度脂蛋白/(mmol/L) 低密度脂蛋白/(mmol/L) C反应蛋白/(mg/L) 凝血酶原时间/s 国际标准化比值 纤维蛋白原/(g/L) 大动脉粥样硬化型 心源性栓塞 小动脉闭塞型 预后良好组 21 93 34 3.33±2.37 315.20±104.81 4.11±3.60 1.54±1.39 0.94±0.26 2.18±0.69 12.67±27.61 12.32±2.95 1.09±0.25 3.44±1.23 预后不良组 15 51 24 5.75±4.51 269.89±95.36 3.86±1.00 1.47±0.84 0.97±0.32 2.26±0.74 25.11±33.36 12.02±1.65 1.06±0.16 4.02±1.13 t 0.89* 4.71 3.35 0.65 0.42 0.69 0.85 2.97 0.89 1.05 3.68 P 0.64 < 0.01 < 0.01 >0.05 >0.05 >0.05 >0.05 < 0.01 >0.05 >0.05 < 0.01 *示χ2值 表 2 短期预后不良的多因素logistic回归分析
因素 B SE Waldχ2 P OR(95%CI) 年龄 -0.006 0.026 0.06 >0.05 0.994 (0.945~1.045) 女性 -0.407 0.473 0.74 >0.05 0.665 (0.263~1.683) 合并肺部感染 0.122 0.511 0.06 >0.05 1.130 (0.415~3.074) NLR 0.154 0.077 3.99 < 0.05 1.166 (1.003~1.357) 尿酸 0.001 0.002 0.04 >0.05 1.000 (0.996~1.005) C反应蛋白 -0.005 0.009 0.36 >0.05 0.995 (0.978~1.012) 纤维蛋白原 0.003 0.192 0.00 >0.05 1.003 (0.689~1.461) 基线NIHSS评分 0.338 0.060 31.50 < 0.01 1.402 (1.246~1.578) CHA2DS2-VASc评分 0.725 0.148 23.85 < 0.01 2.065 (1.544~2.763) 表 3 各变量预测NVAF合并急性脑梗死短期预后不良的ROC曲线分析
因素 最佳截断值 敏感性/% 特异性/% P 曲线下面积(95%CI) CHA2DS2-VASc评分 4.5 68.90 81.80 < 0.01 0.816(0.758~0.874) 基线NIHSS评分 8.5 82.20 74.30 < 0.01 0.885(0.844~0.925) NLR 3.416 73.30 70.30 < 0.01 0.726(0.658~0.794) 联合预测 — 84.40 87.80 < 0.01 0.932(0.899~0.964) -
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