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子宫内膜异位症是指覆盖子宫内部的组织层在子宫外部生长、浸润的一种良性的雌激素依赖性疾病[1],其中以卵巢型子宫内膜异位症(ovarian endometriosis,OEM)最为常见[2]。腹腔镜下保守性手术治疗是OEM病人的主要治疗手段[3],该技术可在视野下松解粘连和剔除囊肿,并能保留有效的卵巢组织,在减轻和解除病人疼痛的同时,对生育功能也有较好的促进作用[4]。但子宫内膜的种植和生长能力较强,内膜异位症又形态多样,发病机制复杂,部分OEM病人经腹腔镜下保守性手术治疗后仍会出现复发[5],如何早期预测其复发风险是临床一直以来面临的棘手的问题。既往研究[6]显示,可应用表面增强激光解析电离飞行时间质谱技术建立子宫内膜异位症诊断模型,但深层次的决策树模型在视觉和解释上都比较困难,临床实用性较差。目前就预测OEM术后复发风险方面尚未形成有效且统一的模型。列线图是一种能够将临床风险定量化的可读可视的新型模型,直观易懂,近年来已在临床研究中得到广泛应用[7]。基于此,本研究拟在分析腹腔镜OEM保守性手术后复发影响因素的基础上建立列线图模型,以期为降低OEM术后复发率提供参考依据。
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经统计,本组病人腹腔镜OEM保守性手术后2年内复发42例,复发率24.1%,基于此将病人分为复发组(n=42)和未复发组(n=132)。单因素分析结果显示,2组病人年龄、术前痛经史、既往药物治疗史、后穹隆触痛、r-AFS分期、病变侧别和术后是否辅助药物治疗差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05~P<0.01)(见表 1)。
因素 复发组(n=42) 未复发组(n=132) χ2 P 年龄/岁 <30 23 42 10.42 < 0.01 30~35 12 34 >35 7 56 初潮年龄/岁 <13 11 25 1.02 >0.05 ≥13 31 107 月经时长/d <7 27 15 89 43 0.14 >0.05 ≥7 15 43 术前产次/次 0 17 76 3.82 >0.05 1 19 44 ≥2 6 12 BMI/(kg/m2) <24 15 36 1.10 >0.05 ≥24 27 96 吸烟 5 17 0.03 >0.05 饮酒 13 29 1.40 >0.05 术前痛经史 35 78 8.23 < 0.01 既往宫腔操作史 9 17 1.83 >0.05 既往内异症手术史 7 11 2.39 >0.05 既往药物治疗史 24 42 8.68 < 0.01 合并子宫腺肌病 14 47 0.07 >0.05 合并子宫肌瘤 5 17 0.03 >0.05 后穹隆触痛 20 31 8.96 < 0.01 患病时间/月 <12 25 83 2.18 >0.05 12~24 9 35 >24 8 14 r-AFS分期/期 Ⅰ~Ⅱ 13 79 10.68 < 0.01 Ⅲ~Ⅳ 29 53 病变侧别 单侧 22 98 7.12 < 0.01 双侧 20 34 囊肿直径/cm <5 9 45 2.39 >0.05 ≥5 33 87 术后辅助药物治疗 19 95 10.08 < 0.01 术后妊娠 7 34 1.46 >0.05 表 1 影响腹腔镜OEM保守性手术后复发的单因素分析
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以术后复发情况为因变量(复发=1,未复发=0),以单因素分析中有统计学意义的项目为自变量,进行二分类logistic回归分析,结果显示,年龄小、术前痛经史、既往药物治疗史、后穹隆触痛、r-AFS分期高、双侧病变和术后未用药均为腹腔镜OEM保守性手术后复发的独立危险因素(P<0.05~P<0.01)(见表 2)。
变量 B SE Waldχ2 P OR 95%CI 年龄 <30岁 1.239 0.487 6.488 < 0.05 3.454 1.331~8.963 30~35岁 1.019 0.425 5.733 < 0.05 2.770 1.203~6.376 术前痛经史 1.100 0.526 4.375 < 0.05 3.004 1.072~8.420 既往药物治疗史 0.965 0.431 5.005 < 0.05 2.624 1.127~6.110 后穹隆触痛 1.047 0.451 5.390 < 0.05 2.848 1.177~6.893 r-AFS分期Ⅲ~Ⅳ期 1.370 0.450 9.259 < 0.01 3.933 1.628~9.503 双侧病变 1.115 0.449 6.181 < 0.05 3.051 1.266~7.350 术后未用药 0.928 0.438 4.481 < 0.05 2.528 1.071~5.968 常量 -5.176 0.807 41.190 < 0.01 0.006 — 表 2 腹腔镜OEM保守性手术后复发的多因素logistic回归分析
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基于筛选出的危险因素建立预测腹腔镜OEM保守性手术后复发风险的列线图模型(见图 1)。各项指标均各有一条对应线段,线段端点反映了指标分类情况,左侧为非危险或保护因素,右侧为危险因素。以端点向评分标准轴做垂直线即可得到相应的赋分值,左侧端点均为0分,右侧自上而下分别为:年龄30~35岁47分,年龄<30岁100分,术前痛经史70分,既往药物治疗史61分,后穹隆触痛67分,r-AFS分期Ⅲ~Ⅳ期87分,双侧病变72分,术后未用药62分。将各项指标得分求和得出总分,可在总分轴上找到对应点,再向预测风险轴做垂直线,交点处即为腹腔镜OEM保守性手术后复发的列线图预测概率。模型验证结果显示,C-index为0.817,校正曲线和理想曲线拟合反映较好,表明该模型具有良好的预测精准度;AUC为0.839(95%CI:0.802~0.874),表明该模型具有良好的区分度。
腹腔镜卵巢子宫内膜异位症保守性手术后复发的危险因素分析及风险预警模型建立
Analysis of risk factors for recurrence of laparoscopic ovarian endometriosis after conservative surgery and establishment of a risk early warning model
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摘要:
目的筛选腹腔镜卵巢子宫内膜异位症(OEM)保守性手术后复发的危险因素,并建立相关风险预警模型。 方法收集因OEM行腹腔镜保守性手术治疗病人174例临床资料,采用单因素和logistic回归多因素分析,对影响腹腔镜OEM保守性手术后复发的相关因素进行分析,并建立列线图预测模型。 结果年龄小、术前痛经史、既往药物治疗史、后穹隆触痛、r-AFS分期高、双侧病变和术后未用药均为腹腔镜OEM保守性手术后复发的独立危险因素(P<0.05~P<0.01)。依此建立相关列线图模型,并对该模型进行验证,结果显示,C-index为0.817,校正曲线和理想曲线拟合反映较好,AUC为0.839(95%CI 0.802~0.874),表明该模型具有良好的预测能力。 结论基于危险因素建立的列线图模型对早期评估腹腔镜OEM保守性手术后复发风险具有良好的预测能力。 Abstract:ObjectiveTo screen the risk factors of recurrence after laparoscopic conservative surgery for ovarian endometriosis (OEM) and establish the related risk early warning model. MethodsThe clinical data of 174 patients with OEM who underwent laparoscopic conservative surgery were collected.The related factors affecting the recurrence after laparoscopic OEM conservative surgery were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression, and the nomogram prediction model was established. ResultsYoung age, history of preoperative dysmenorrhea, history of previous medical treatment, posterior fornix tenderness, high r-AFS stage, bilateral lesions, and postoperative no medication were independent risk factors for recurrence after laparoscopic OEM conservative surgery (P<0.05 to P<0.01).A related nomogram model was established based on this, and the model was verified.The results showed that the C-index was 0.817, the calibration curve and the ideal curve fitted well, and the AUC was 0.839 (95%CI: 0.802-0.874), indicating the model had good predictive ability. ConclusionsNomogram model based on risk factors has excellent prediction ability, which is of great clinical significance for early evaluation of recurrence risk after laparoscopic OEM conservative surgery. -
表 1 影响腹腔镜OEM保守性手术后复发的单因素分析
因素 复发组(n=42) 未复发组(n=132) χ2 P 年龄/岁 <30 23 42 10.42 < 0.01 30~35 12 34 >35 7 56 初潮年龄/岁 <13 11 25 1.02 >0.05 ≥13 31 107 月经时长/d <7 27 15 89 43 0.14 >0.05 ≥7 15 43 术前产次/次 0 17 76 3.82 >0.05 1 19 44 ≥2 6 12 BMI/(kg/m2) <24 15 36 1.10 >0.05 ≥24 27 96 吸烟 5 17 0.03 >0.05 饮酒 13 29 1.40 >0.05 术前痛经史 35 78 8.23 < 0.01 既往宫腔操作史 9 17 1.83 >0.05 既往内异症手术史 7 11 2.39 >0.05 既往药物治疗史 24 42 8.68 < 0.01 合并子宫腺肌病 14 47 0.07 >0.05 合并子宫肌瘤 5 17 0.03 >0.05 后穹隆触痛 20 31 8.96 < 0.01 患病时间/月 <12 25 83 2.18 >0.05 12~24 9 35 >24 8 14 r-AFS分期/期 Ⅰ~Ⅱ 13 79 10.68 < 0.01 Ⅲ~Ⅳ 29 53 病变侧别 单侧 22 98 7.12 < 0.01 双侧 20 34 囊肿直径/cm <5 9 45 2.39 >0.05 ≥5 33 87 术后辅助药物治疗 19 95 10.08 < 0.01 术后妊娠 7 34 1.46 >0.05 表 2 腹腔镜OEM保守性手术后复发的多因素logistic回归分析
变量 B SE Waldχ2 P OR 95%CI 年龄 <30岁 1.239 0.487 6.488 < 0.05 3.454 1.331~8.963 30~35岁 1.019 0.425 5.733 < 0.05 2.770 1.203~6.376 术前痛经史 1.100 0.526 4.375 < 0.05 3.004 1.072~8.420 既往药物治疗史 0.965 0.431 5.005 < 0.05 2.624 1.127~6.110 后穹隆触痛 1.047 0.451 5.390 < 0.05 2.848 1.177~6.893 r-AFS分期Ⅲ~Ⅳ期 1.370 0.450 9.259 < 0.01 3.933 1.628~9.503 双侧病变 1.115 0.449 6.181 < 0.05 3.051 1.266~7.350 术后未用药 0.928 0.438 4.481 < 0.05 2.528 1.071~5.968 常量 -5.176 0.807 41.190 < 0.01 0.006 — -
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